Following the Trend: Why Bitcoin Still Has Room to Run
Welcome back, my 10 favorite people. In today’s update, I want to talk about why trying to call the exact Bitcoin cycle top is far less effective than simply following the trend until it ends.
While it’s tempting to predict the peak again and again, history shows that price trends last longer than most traders expect, and momentum remains your best ally until major technical levels give way.
📈 The Trend Is Still Your Friend
As long as Bitcoin continues closing weekly candles above its 20-week moving average (20WMA)—which it did again last week—the trend remains firmly bullish. This simple metric has been one of the most reliable long-term signals in Bitcoin’s history.
My base case remains that Bitcoin still has higher to rally this year, with the “final push” scenario being the most likely outcome based on current macro and technical data.
And guess what? Seasonality supports this view. October and November have historically been some of Bitcoin’s strongest months, even in years when markets started out weak. Many traders who turned bearish too early this October may regret it by year-end.
Are You Ready?
🌍 The Global Liquidity Tailwind
One of the most powerful forces behind this bull market is the Global Liquidity Index, a measure that tracks central bank balance sheets and global money supply.
When global liquidity expands, risk assets like crypto tend to surge. That’s exactly what’s happening now: the index is rising again, signaling an end-of-year liquidity-driven rally.
Until that changes, the trend remains upward—and I’ll continue following the data rather than emotions or predictions.
🔄 The “Full Reset” Scenario
Of course, no trend lasts forever. If Bitcoin closes a weekly candle below the 20WMA, I’ll shift to what I call the full reset scenario.
That means Bitcoin could consolidate longer, retest the 50-week moving average (50WMA), and reset investor sentiment before another leg higher. The 50WMA has historically been Bitcoin’s macro line in the sand during bull markets—holding through every major cycle correction.
Even with recent volatility and the massive $20 billion leverage liquidation event, the structure remains intact. If that wasn’t a full reset, I don’t know what is.
🧩 Structural Shifts in Market Behavior
Something big just changed in the market: CME Futures Open Interest has surpassed Binance.
That’s unprecedented. It shows that U.S. institutional capital (which trades on CME) is overtaking retail-driven exchanges like Binance. It could mean traders are moving toward regulated, transparent venues after recent liquidations.
This institutional shift could mark the start of a more mature, professional crypto market cycle.
😬 Sentiment and Consolidation
We’re also seeing lower highs and lower lows in the Fear & Greed Index, similar to what happened in 2024 when Bitcoin went sideways for nine months before breaking out.
ETF inflows have slowed as well—no big inflows or outflows, just a reset period. That’s perfectly normal after such a large liquidation event.
For now, that means Bitcoin remains range-bound between $112K and $123K, consolidating before its next major move.
🧠 Managing Risk the Smart Way
This week, I deployed some cash into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, following my system’s signals—not because I believed the exact bottom was in, but because the setup aligned with my rules.
As we move deeper into the cycle, I’m gradually increasing my cash allocation as risk builds. Perfect timing is overrated; discipline beats emotion every time.
📊 On-Chain and Macro Alignment
Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart shows that investors are sitting on moderate profits—neither extreme greed nor capitulation. It’s currently between fair value and expensive, matching the broader technical picture.
The same is true for the 200-week EMA distance chart—Bitcoin isn’t overextended yet, but it’s approaching levels where mean reversion risk rises.
Still, with Bitcoin 50% above its 200EMA, there’s no evidence yet of a full-blown bear market. The structure remains bullish.
🏦 Macro Momentum Is Building
Let’s zoom out:
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Congress is now actively discussing crypto legislation.
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401(k) crypto access is being introduced.
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BlackRock (AUM $13T) is championing tokenization as the next financial frontier.
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Major banks are preparing to offer crypto trading to clients.
These milestones would have been unimaginable just a few years ago. Despite the short-term chop, the long-term trend for digital assets has never looked stronger.
💡 Ethereum, Solana, and the Altcoin Outlook
Ethereum continues to look powerful—closing above its $4,000 range high last week and forming a clear bull flag pattern. Large institutional treasuries are accumulating ETH aggressively, signaling confidence in its long-term value.
Solana, however, closed below its $200 range high and needs to reclaim that level quickly to avoid lagging behind.
For altseason to truly ignite, we need two things:
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Ethereum entering price discovery.
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The Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks) breaking higher—which just happened.
That’s a bullish confluence worth watching closely.
🪙 The Macro Blueprint for 2025
The Global Liquidity Index is flashing green again.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is weakening.
And the market is pricing in five potential rate cuts over the next 12 months.
Once quantitative tightening ends and QE begins again, liquidity will flood back into risk assets. Bitcoin and gold will likely rally together as fiat currency debasement accelerates due to runaway debt and deficits.
In short: exponential debt growth = exponential money supply = Bitcoin tailwind.
🧭 Final Thoughts
The short-term picture may bring corrections, shakeouts, and noise—but the long-term trend remains crystal clear.
Bitcoin is still following its cyclical rhythm: higher highs, healthy resets, and structural growth supported by global liquidity and institutional adoption.
As long as it holds above the 20- and 50-week moving averages, the base case remains bullish.
“Follow the trend until it ends.” It’s simple, but it works.
Crypto Rich ($RICH) CA: GfTtq35nXTBkKLrt1o6JtrN5gxxtzCeNqQpAFG7JiBq2
CryptoRich.io is a hub for bold crypto insights, high-conviction altcoin picks, and market-defying trading strategies – built for traders who don’t just ride the wave, but create it. It’s where meme culture meets smart money.
